Predictors of clinical outcomes and histologic progression among patients with chronic hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis are poorly defined. We developed statistical models to predict clinical and histologic outcomes in such patients.Baseline demographic, clinical, and histologic data from Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-Term Treatment Against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) Trial participants were subjected to multivariate analyses to determine their ability to predict clinical outcomes (ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, Child-Turcotte-Pugh score >or=7 on 2 consecutive visits, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, and liver-related death) and histologic outcome (>or=2-point increase in Ishak fibrosis stage) during the 3.5 years of the trial.Of 1050 randomized patients, 135 had 1 or more clinical outcomes a median of 23 (range, 1-45) months after randomization. Factors associated with a clinical outcome in multivariate analyses were higher aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, lower albumin, lower platelet count, higher total bilirubin, and more advanced Ishak fibrosis score (P < .0001). The cumulative 3.5-year incidence of a clinical outcome was 2

作者：Marc G, Ghany；Anna S F, Lok；James E, Everhart；Gregory T, Everson；William M, Lee；Teresa M, Curto；Elizabeth C, Wright；Anne M, Stoddard；Richard K, Sterling；Adrian M, Di Bisceglie；Herbert L, Bonkovsky；Chihiro, Morishima；Timothy R, Morgan；Jules L, Dienstag

来源：Gastroenterology 2010 年 138卷 1期