Lifetime risk estimates of chronic kidney disease (CKD) can motivate preventative behaviors at the individual level and forecast disease burden and health care use at the population level.Markov Monte Carlo model simulation study.Current US black and white population.Markov models simulating kidney disease development, using an individual perspective and lifetime horizon.Age-, sex-, and race-specific residual lifetime risks of CKD stages 3a+ (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <60 mL/min/1.73 m²), 3b+ (eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m²), 4+ (eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m²), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD).State transition probabilities of developing CKD and of dying prior to its development were modeled using: (1) mortality rates from the National Vital Statistics Report, (2) mortality risk estimates from a 2-million person meta-analysis, and (3) CKD prevalence from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Incidence, prevalence, and mortality related to ESRD were supplied by the US Renal Data System.At birth, the overall lifetime risks of CKD stages 3a+, 3b+, 4+, and ESRD were 59.1

作者：Morgan E, Grams；Eric K H, Chow；Dorry L, Segev；Josef, Coresh

来源：American journal of kidney diseases : the official journal of the National Kidney Foundation 2013 年 62卷 2期